Following is a copy of the October article for the Lake of the Ozarks Business Journal monthly real estate column. You can view the Business Journal online at www.LakeBusJournal.com
I’ve created a Visual Tour showing much of the commercial construction activity and roads here at the lake. www.visualtour.com/show.asp?T=2602143
Last Man Standing
In the fall of 2007 when I saw where the market was headed and knew the effect this would have on those of us in the real estate industry, my remark was “last one out, turn off the lights”. My wife, Karen, always joked that it would be a “last man standing” situation.
As I am writing this in mid-September, my sales are up 42.7% over all of last year. With the four contracts I have set to close by the end of September, my first three quarter sales will have eclipsed the entire 12 months of 2010. My comrades here in the business at the lake are seeing relief as well.
It has been a long and arduous four years. Huge numbers have left their real estate careers behind both locally and across the country. To those who by luck, knowledge, experience and just sheer brute force were able to stay in the game, I say congratulations. The last men (and women) are now standing and I’m grateful to be among the best (and seasoned) real estate professionals you can find anywhere.
Lake home sales continue in an upward trend. I am seeing a huge increase in luxury home sales. These buyers are generally professional businesspeople paying cash. This shows a real boost in confidence in both lake area real estate values and its economy. I am hearing similar reports from builders and agents in the St. Louis and Kansas City areas. With most of our 2nd homeowners coming from those two areas, good news for them is always good news for the lake.
Lots sales have continued to be almost non-existent. With the supply of homes ready to buy, people simply aren’t looking to build. As this supply is reduced and values begin to stabilize, we will see a return to new home starts. Condo sales are still holding steady.
Again, all of the commercial activity creates excitement and spurs confidence. We’ve created a virtual tour of some of the commercial happenings here at Lake of the Ozarks. For a link, email me at cme@YourLake.com and request the lake tour or visit my website www.YourLake.com and choose Lake of the Ozarks Commercial Activity Tour on the Welcome (home) page.
Karen and I would like to say thanks to our fellow agents for being so great to work with. During the past two years we have concentrated on stabilizing then growing our business. We have seen continual increase in our sales and the past 60 days we have had a large jump in activity. If you are considering making a move from your current company, please give us a call. We have the systems and marketing in place to help you grow your business. No matter what level you are at in terms of experience and success, we have the capabilities to assist you in reaching the next level through training, mentoring and not only sharing leads that we generate but teaching you how to generate your own leads and be more independent in producing income.
If you would like a detailed sales report on your specific property type or neighborhood, or would like information on the best buys at the lake, contact C. Michael Elliott & Associates at 866.Your.Lake or cme@yourlake.com View thousands of lake area listings at www.YourLake.com. You can also log your opinions on Michael’s real estate blog, www.AsTheLakeChurns.com
Thursday, September 29, 2011
September Real Estate Update
The Worm Has Turned
When Shakespeare used that simple phrase, "The worm has turned," he knew his audience would understand its meaning and origin. A widely used expression even today, it indicates a reversal of an unfavorable situation, but few who use it know why.
"Worm" is a common term for 'dragon.' In fairy tale terms, the flying dragon spewing fire would ravage fields and villages. To be in the dragon's path resulted in inescapable destruction. What a relief when it changed directions.
The latest stats show that our “Lake Dragon” has continued in its new upward direction. Lakefront home sales are higher in 2011 than every year since 2007. 2011 home sales are up by 16% over 2010 and are almost 30% higher than they were back in 2003. The average sales price is also up 3.5% from 2010. Condo sales are not enjoying as quick of a recovery as homes but sales are still slightly up over each of the previous two years however the average sales price is still down. Nationally, all existing home sales were up 21% in July 2011 over July 2010 and in the Midwest sales were up 31.3%.
If you haven’t been to the lake lately, commercial construction has started to roll. A new Golden Corral was completed earlier this summer; CVS Pharmacy is coming up nicely at Eagles Landing with Mennards pad site currently being prepped and Kohls to follow soon. Dierberg’s plans for the former High Point Center include a 15,000SF grocery store along with another large box store. The Osage Beach Expressway is complete from the Osage River to the Grand Glaize Bridge with western completion scheduled by December of this year along with the extension of the Horseshoe Bend Parkway (242) from the HH and Bus 54 junction which is now rough cut all the way through.
Most of the information I have compiled is based on data from the Board of Realtors MLS System from January 1 thru August 15 in each of the previous 10 years. This is intended as a general synopsis of the lake’s real estate market. If you would like detailed information on any specific market at the lake, please let me know.
Any questions? Contact C. Michael Elliott & Associates at 866.Your.Lake or cme@yourlake.com View thousands of lake area listings at www.YourLake.com. You can also log your opinions on Michael’s real estate blog, www.AsTheLakeChurns.com
When Shakespeare used that simple phrase, "The worm has turned," he knew his audience would understand its meaning and origin. A widely used expression even today, it indicates a reversal of an unfavorable situation, but few who use it know why.
"Worm" is a common term for 'dragon.' In fairy tale terms, the flying dragon spewing fire would ravage fields and villages. To be in the dragon's path resulted in inescapable destruction. What a relief when it changed directions.
The latest stats show that our “Lake Dragon” has continued in its new upward direction. Lakefront home sales are higher in 2011 than every year since 2007. 2011 home sales are up by 16% over 2010 and are almost 30% higher than they were back in 2003. The average sales price is also up 3.5% from 2010. Condo sales are not enjoying as quick of a recovery as homes but sales are still slightly up over each of the previous two years however the average sales price is still down. Nationally, all existing home sales were up 21% in July 2011 over July 2010 and in the Midwest sales were up 31.3%.
If you haven’t been to the lake lately, commercial construction has started to roll. A new Golden Corral was completed earlier this summer; CVS Pharmacy is coming up nicely at Eagles Landing with Mennards pad site currently being prepped and Kohls to follow soon. Dierberg’s plans for the former High Point Center include a 15,000SF grocery store along with another large box store. The Osage Beach Expressway is complete from the Osage River to the Grand Glaize Bridge with western completion scheduled by December of this year along with the extension of the Horseshoe Bend Parkway (242) from the HH and Bus 54 junction which is now rough cut all the way through.
Most of the information I have compiled is based on data from the Board of Realtors MLS System from January 1 thru August 15 in each of the previous 10 years. This is intended as a general synopsis of the lake’s real estate market. If you would like detailed information on any specific market at the lake, please let me know.
Any questions? Contact C. Michael Elliott & Associates at 866.Your.Lake or cme@yourlake.com View thousands of lake area listings at www.YourLake.com. You can also log your opinions on Michael’s real estate blog, www.AsTheLakeChurns.com
August Real Estate Update
The Bottom has Arrived!
The Pending Home Sales Index rose 8.2% in May 2011 over April’s pending sales and is 13.4 percent higher than May 2010’s reading. This is the first time in over a year that contract activity was above year-ago levels and the strongest monthly gain in six months. Pending sales have trended upward since bottoming last June, rising in seven of the past eleven months.
June sales stats hold further promise for the Lake of the Ozark’s real estate market recovery with the number of lakefront homes sold in June 2011 vs. June 2010 up by 9.8%.
In comparing the first six months of 2011 to 2010, we again see a hopeful increase of 8.8% in the number of closed sales. Pending lake home sales as of mid-July indicate that this upward trend is already in place to continue over the next two months.
This is the longest sustained growth pattern I have seen in almost four years. I am cautiously optimistic that we have found the bottom. Can you hear the collective release of held-breath across the realtor and seller community?
On average, the lake area has taken a 15-20 % hit on values depending on property type and location. What many buyers don't realize is that most sellers have already adjusted their asking prices to reflect this depreciation. In my 30 years in this business here at the lake, I have never experienced as many stalemates in contract negotiations. Often, the seller isn't even willing to make a counter offer due to the initial offer being so far below market value and most are not in dire straits, need to sell circumstances. Of the 2,230 homes active in MLS on the day of this writing, only 87 are foreclosure properties. The lake's market may have taken a hit along with the rest of the country but it is on the upswing and with the financially strong base of homeowner's, I feel it will recover faster than most areas. So if you are a seller, hang in there; hope is on the horizon. If you're a buyer; hurry up!
I know I keep singing the same song, however I cannot express enough to potential buyers, act now. Prices are low, interest rates are at historically record lows and potential lending regulations are on the horizon that will make it difficult to obtain a mortgage as well as decreasing loan limits and causing high servicing fees.
Most of the information I have compiled is based on data from the Board of Realtors MLS System from January 1 thru July 20 of both 2010 and 2011. This is intended as a general synopsis of the lake’s real estate market. If you would like detailed information on any specific market at the lake, please let me know.
Thanks to everyone who joined Karen and me at the JB Hooks Business Journal Social. We had a great time and enjoyed fabulous food and service as always. Thanks to John LaFata and his terrific staff for always taking such great care of us.
Any questions? Contact C. Michael Elliott & Associates at 866.Your.Lake or cme@yourlake.com View thousands of lake area listings at www.YourLake.com. You can also log your opinions on Michael’s real estate blog, www.AsTheLakeChurns.com
The Pending Home Sales Index rose 8.2% in May 2011 over April’s pending sales and is 13.4 percent higher than May 2010’s reading. This is the first time in over a year that contract activity was above year-ago levels and the strongest monthly gain in six months. Pending sales have trended upward since bottoming last June, rising in seven of the past eleven months.
June sales stats hold further promise for the Lake of the Ozark’s real estate market recovery with the number of lakefront homes sold in June 2011 vs. June 2010 up by 9.8%.
In comparing the first six months of 2011 to 2010, we again see a hopeful increase of 8.8% in the number of closed sales. Pending lake home sales as of mid-July indicate that this upward trend is already in place to continue over the next two months.
This is the longest sustained growth pattern I have seen in almost four years. I am cautiously optimistic that we have found the bottom. Can you hear the collective release of held-breath across the realtor and seller community?
On average, the lake area has taken a 15-20 % hit on values depending on property type and location. What many buyers don't realize is that most sellers have already adjusted their asking prices to reflect this depreciation. In my 30 years in this business here at the lake, I have never experienced as many stalemates in contract negotiations. Often, the seller isn't even willing to make a counter offer due to the initial offer being so far below market value and most are not in dire straits, need to sell circumstances. Of the 2,230 homes active in MLS on the day of this writing, only 87 are foreclosure properties. The lake's market may have taken a hit along with the rest of the country but it is on the upswing and with the financially strong base of homeowner's, I feel it will recover faster than most areas. So if you are a seller, hang in there; hope is on the horizon. If you're a buyer; hurry up!
I know I keep singing the same song, however I cannot express enough to potential buyers, act now. Prices are low, interest rates are at historically record lows and potential lending regulations are on the horizon that will make it difficult to obtain a mortgage as well as decreasing loan limits and causing high servicing fees.
Most of the information I have compiled is based on data from the Board of Realtors MLS System from January 1 thru July 20 of both 2010 and 2011. This is intended as a general synopsis of the lake’s real estate market. If you would like detailed information on any specific market at the lake, please let me know.
Thanks to everyone who joined Karen and me at the JB Hooks Business Journal Social. We had a great time and enjoyed fabulous food and service as always. Thanks to John LaFata and his terrific staff for always taking such great care of us.
Any questions? Contact C. Michael Elliott & Associates at 866.Your.Lake or cme@yourlake.com View thousands of lake area listings at www.YourLake.com. You can also log your opinions on Michael’s real estate blog, www.AsTheLakeChurns.com
July Real Estate Update
May sales stats have bolstered the year to date stats for the first five months of 2011. Overall lakefront home average sales price has increased 4% while the number of homes sold increased by 9%. Average price per square foot remained the same indicating that at least for now, prices are holding steady.
The largest growth in a specific segment that I am seeing is the luxury home market of Porto Cima and The Villages at Shawnee Bend. The number of lakefront homes sold in these communities has more than tripled over the same time frame last year, average sales price has increased 26% and the price per square foot has risen by 15%. The average days on the market has been reduced by about two and a half months. It will take monitoring over the next few months to determine if this is an anomaly or a true return for this section of the market. I personally believe we are seeing a return in consumer confidence.
The number of Horseshoe Bend (non Four Seasons) lakefront homes sold is down by one, the average sales price is up 5 ½ % and the price per square foot is down 12% so in this segment, the buyers are still spending and they are getting more house for their money.
Four Seasons lakefront home sales have increased by 29%, the days on the market decreased by two months and the average sales price has fallen by 16%. Upon closer review, this appears to be more due to smaller homes selling than to a decline in value.
Lakefront condo sales are up slightly in terms of units sold however the sales prices and price per square foot are down about 5% (which is still a 3% improvement over the first four months YTD combined sales).
In looking at a closer comparison of waterfront two bedroom units on Horseshoe Bend, the number of units sold have more than doubled over last year, the days on the market have decreased by over a month, average sales price has remained the same but average unit size is larger so again, in this segment buyers are getting more for their dollar.
Camden County reports via their website they issued 8 new residential building permits the first four months of the year. It did not indicate what that figure had been in 2010 for comparison. I believe the lack of permits goes hand in hand with the lack of vacant land sales the lake has been experiencing the past couple of years.
Most of the information I have compiled is based on data from the Board of Realtors MLS System from January 1 thru May 31 of both 2010 and 2011. This is intended as a general synopsis of the lake’s real estate market. If you would like detailed information on any specific market at the lake, please let me know.
For anyone interested in seeing what is available in the foreclosure market, please call or email, I’ll be happy to provide you with listing data on bank owned properties.
Karen and I are hosting the July 14th Business Journal Social at JB Hooks from 4 p.m. to 7 p.m. Stop by to visit and enjoy some great food and as always, great service and atmosphere.
Any questions? Contact C. Michael Elliott & Associates at 866.Your.Lake or cme@yourlake.com View thousands of lake area listings at www.YourLake.com. You can also log your opinions on Michael’s real estate blog, www.AsTheLakeChurns.com
The largest growth in a specific segment that I am seeing is the luxury home market of Porto Cima and The Villages at Shawnee Bend. The number of lakefront homes sold in these communities has more than tripled over the same time frame last year, average sales price has increased 26% and the price per square foot has risen by 15%. The average days on the market has been reduced by about two and a half months. It will take monitoring over the next few months to determine if this is an anomaly or a true return for this section of the market. I personally believe we are seeing a return in consumer confidence.
The number of Horseshoe Bend (non Four Seasons) lakefront homes sold is down by one, the average sales price is up 5 ½ % and the price per square foot is down 12% so in this segment, the buyers are still spending and they are getting more house for their money.
Four Seasons lakefront home sales have increased by 29%, the days on the market decreased by two months and the average sales price has fallen by 16%. Upon closer review, this appears to be more due to smaller homes selling than to a decline in value.
Lakefront condo sales are up slightly in terms of units sold however the sales prices and price per square foot are down about 5% (which is still a 3% improvement over the first four months YTD combined sales).
In looking at a closer comparison of waterfront two bedroom units on Horseshoe Bend, the number of units sold have more than doubled over last year, the days on the market have decreased by over a month, average sales price has remained the same but average unit size is larger so again, in this segment buyers are getting more for their dollar.
Camden County reports via their website they issued 8 new residential building permits the first four months of the year. It did not indicate what that figure had been in 2010 for comparison. I believe the lack of permits goes hand in hand with the lack of vacant land sales the lake has been experiencing the past couple of years.
Most of the information I have compiled is based on data from the Board of Realtors MLS System from January 1 thru May 31 of both 2010 and 2011. This is intended as a general synopsis of the lake’s real estate market. If you would like detailed information on any specific market at the lake, please let me know.
For anyone interested in seeing what is available in the foreclosure market, please call or email, I’ll be happy to provide you with listing data on bank owned properties.
Karen and I are hosting the July 14th Business Journal Social at JB Hooks from 4 p.m. to 7 p.m. Stop by to visit and enjoy some great food and as always, great service and atmosphere.
Any questions? Contact C. Michael Elliott & Associates at 866.Your.Lake or cme@yourlake.com View thousands of lake area listings at www.YourLake.com. You can also log your opinions on Michael’s real estate blog, www.AsTheLakeChurns.com
June Real Estate Update
Are We There Yet?
The most asked question these days is “Has the market hit bottom yet?” I’d love to reply with a resounding yes but the truth is, I’m just not sure. I have seen indicators over the past two years that seemed to point to that only to see the market drop even further.
The National Association of REALTORS recently released a report showing that total existing homes sales, which include single family homes and condos, rose 8.3% in the first quarter of this year.
Locally our home and condo sales are almost exactly the same as last year in the time frame of January 1st to April 30th based on information from the Bagnell Dam Association’s Multiple Listing Service. In 2011, one more home sold than in 2010 and 3 less condos sold this year over last. It is promising that we are starting to stabilize on the number of home and condo sales. However we have seen a continued decrease in average sales prices. The average 2011 Homes sales price is down 8.9% compared to the first four months of 2010. The average 2011 Condo sales price has seen a decrease of 8.2%.
The Housing Finance Reform Act of 2011 was introduced in May and seeks to maintain government role in mortgages. The plan is to dissolve Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and introduce at least five private firms that would be in charge of funding and securitizing conventional mortgages. The resulting bonds would have a federal guarantee for which these firms would be charged a fee. If passed it will make it more expensive for buyer’s to buy a home, restricting the availability of mortgages. Higher down payments will be required and the closing fees almost certainly will increase.
Based on this information, the current low interest rates and the low prices, even if we haven’t reached absolute bottom, I not only believe that now is a good time to purchase lake property, I encourage you to move forward quickly. Waiting for a lower price could result in you paying higher interest rates, higher down payment and larger closing costs. Or it might even affect your ability to qualify for a mortgage. Don’t wait! If you’d like a copy of the Outline of the Housing Finance Reform Act, call or email me.
If you would like a detailed sales report on your specific property type or neighborhood, or would like information on the best buys at the lake, contact C. Michael Elliott & Associates at 866.Your.Lake or cme@yourlake.com View thousands of lake area listings at www.YourLake.com. You can also log your opinions on Michael’s real estate blog, www.AsTheLakeChurns.com
The most asked question these days is “Has the market hit bottom yet?” I’d love to reply with a resounding yes but the truth is, I’m just not sure. I have seen indicators over the past two years that seemed to point to that only to see the market drop even further.
The National Association of REALTORS recently released a report showing that total existing homes sales, which include single family homes and condos, rose 8.3% in the first quarter of this year.
Locally our home and condo sales are almost exactly the same as last year in the time frame of January 1st to April 30th based on information from the Bagnell Dam Association’s Multiple Listing Service. In 2011, one more home sold than in 2010 and 3 less condos sold this year over last. It is promising that we are starting to stabilize on the number of home and condo sales. However we have seen a continued decrease in average sales prices. The average 2011 Homes sales price is down 8.9% compared to the first four months of 2010. The average 2011 Condo sales price has seen a decrease of 8.2%.
The Housing Finance Reform Act of 2011 was introduced in May and seeks to maintain government role in mortgages. The plan is to dissolve Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and introduce at least five private firms that would be in charge of funding and securitizing conventional mortgages. The resulting bonds would have a federal guarantee for which these firms would be charged a fee. If passed it will make it more expensive for buyer’s to buy a home, restricting the availability of mortgages. Higher down payments will be required and the closing fees almost certainly will increase.
Based on this information, the current low interest rates and the low prices, even if we haven’t reached absolute bottom, I not only believe that now is a good time to purchase lake property, I encourage you to move forward quickly. Waiting for a lower price could result in you paying higher interest rates, higher down payment and larger closing costs. Or it might even affect your ability to qualify for a mortgage. Don’t wait! If you’d like a copy of the Outline of the Housing Finance Reform Act, call or email me.
If you would like a detailed sales report on your specific property type or neighborhood, or would like information on the best buys at the lake, contact C. Michael Elliott & Associates at 866.Your.Lake or cme@yourlake.com View thousands of lake area listings at www.YourLake.com. You can also log your opinions on Michael’s real estate blog, www.AsTheLakeChurns.com
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)