October Lake of the Ozarks Real Estate Update

Current market data is showing recovery in both number of lake homes sold as well as an increase in property values based on the year to date average sales prices in some areas. While the overall average 2012 sales price of a lake home based on the entire lake area stats is down 6.5% over last year the number of sales is up 15.8%. 2012 is up almost 30% compared to the 2010 market low and there are currently 106 lake homes scheduled to close. It is also interesting to note that 2011 foreclosures represented 9.8% of lake homes sales. That number is down to just 6.9% in 2012. Average sales prices of privately owned lake homes are 40% higher than the sale prices of bank owned homes. I thought I’d break down a few different areas of the lake this month to give you a better snapshot of how some of these areas compare from 2011 to 2012 and to each other. I know you’ve heard “all real estate is local” but this goes even further in showing just how hyper-local it is. Turkey Bend in Osage Beach: Sales prices are up 8.2% with number of lake home sales up from 14 to 16. There are 25 homes currently available and there are 5 homes under contract. Horseshoe Bend & Lake Ozark West of Dam (non Four Seasons): Sales prices are up 5.8% with number of lake home sales more than doubled and area up from 21 to 47. There are 50 homes currently available and there are 8 homes under contract. Four Seasons on Horseshoe Bend: Sales prices are down 26% with number of lake home sales up from 31 to 38. There are 43 homes currently available and there are 7 homes under contract. Porto Cima on Shawnee Bend: Sales prices are down 21.2% with number of lake home sales up from 14 to 16. There are 36 homes currently available and there are 2 homes under contract. The Villages at Shawnee Bend: Sales prices are down 16.7% with number of lake home sales down from 4 to 2. Please note one of the 2 sales this year was a distressed short sale. There are 14 homes currently available and there are no homes under contract. Shawnee Bend (non Porto Cima/Villages): Sales prices are up 3% with number of lake home sales up from 14 to 16. There are 97 homes currently available and there are 6 homes under contract. Data has been obtained from the Lake of the Ozarks MLS based on lakefront home sales over the previous 3 years. These are just a few market areas here at the lake, I’ll compare some of the others in future articles. If you would like a detailed sales report on your specific property type or neighborhood, or would like information on the best buys at the lake, contact C. Michael Elliott & Associates at866.Your.Lake or cme@yourlake.com View thousands of lake area listings at www.YourLake.com. You can also log your opinions on Michael’s real estate blog, www.AsTheLakeChurns.com

September Lake of the Ozarks Real Estate Update

The latest data, just as my previous reports, further solidifies a recovery trend. The number of lake homes sold this year is up 39.9 percent above the low point of 2010. That’s a gain of 5.4 percent from last month’s recovery number of 34.5 percent. Sales prices fell 8 percent from 2011. When the market peaked in terms of units sold in 2006 it took until 2008 for the sales prices to quit climbing. I feel we’ll see the same in reverse during recuperation. The low peak for units sold was in 2010 and I believe by the end of 2012, we will see values to begin to increase across the market. We have already experienced this in a few select price points and property types here at the lake. Reports from Realtor.com show residential listing inventory has fallen 19.3 percent from July 2011. This trend, along with a 2.6 percent year-over-year median list price increase last month, points to some stability in the real estate market slowly coming along this year. The area with the greatest inventory reduction is Oakland, California. In the Top 10 turnaround towns, according to Realtor.com, the lowest median time on the market is less than two months. In the case of Oakland, less than one month. If all real estate is local, what’s this have to do with the market at Lake of the Ozarks? Just as we lagged behind the nation in experiencing a drop in values as well as units sold, I feel we are ahead of much of the country in an improving marketplace. That being said, we are primarily a second and vacation home area. When the rest of the country sees improvement in the full time residential areas, it opens the door for more of these homeowners to look to second home purchases. Condo sales are still up 17.8 percent over the 2009 low spot however, we did loose some ground over last month with a drop of almost 10 percent from the 27.4 percent increase I reported in August’s column. Sales prices were down only a slight 1.2%. Fall appears to be coming on strong, condo and lake homes currently under contract total over a fourth of all the condos and lake homes closed so far this year. If you’ve been hesitant to list your home, I feel that this fall will be an excellent time to get in or back in the marketplace. If you would like a detailed sales report on your specific property type or neighborhood, or would like information on the best buys at the lake, contact C. Michael Elliott & Associates at866.Your.Lake or cme@yourlake.com View thousands of lake area listings at www.YourLake.com. You can also log your opinions on Michael’s real estate blog, www.AsTheLakeChurns.com

July 2012 Lake of the Ozarks Real Estate

Lake Market Continues Upward Trend We all watched as the lake area market rose to record sales from 2004 to 2007 then began to decline in Fall of 2007 slightly behind the rest of the country. Hard to believe that’s been 5 years! Sales continued to decline until 2009 then remained even in 2010. Basing information on data from the Lake of the Ozarks MLS system from January 1 to June 15 of each year reported; the lake home market saw a sales increase in 2012 of 19.9% above 2011 and an overall increase of 36.6% above ’09 & ‘10. 2012 Condo sales have followed suit with a 22.4% increase over 2011 and a 33.3% increase over ’09 & ’10. Days on the market are down considerably for both lake homes and condos to a six months average. I feel foreclosures have played a part in our market more based on perception of the national news and what has happened in other markets but as they say, perception is reality. The fact is that only 1.9% of all lake homes currently on the market are foreclosures and just 3.5% of condos listed fall in that category. Lake lots have taken the biggest hit due to a number of reasons. The availability and pricing of homes made it much easier and more affordable to purchase an existing home than to take on a custom build project. Financing has also made lot purchase and home building more difficult. Building permits for new homes in Camden County has been almost non- existent the past 2-3 years. That being said, there has been an increase in lot sales this year; 25% if you want the stats, but the fact is that just 20 lake lots have sold so far this year compared to 15 during the same time in 2011. This is a step in the right direction but far from the glory days of the initial 6 years of the new millennium. On the plus side, I sold 3 lake lots in June, all cash transactions scheduled to close early July. Two of these lots were located in The Villages at Shawnee Bend subdivision which has not seen a lake lot sell in the past year. The other was in Four Season’s Porto Cima which saw 6 lot sales in the past 12 months. The buyers each plan to build a custom home which is even more good news for the local economy. The buyers got excellent buys on these lots and I have every confidence that these will hold their value and even increase over the next couple of years. Was I lucky or smart? The next 2-4 months will tell as to whether I was just fortunate or if the lot market is picking up momentum. I feel the declining home inventory; particularly of desirable, well priced homes along with price adjustments in the lot market will drive lake lot sales. If you would like a detailed sales report on your specific property type or neighborhood, or would like information on the best buys at the lake, contact C. Michael Elliott & Associates at866.Your.Lake or cme@yourlake.com View thousands of lake area listings at www.YourLake.com. You can also log your opinions on Michael’s real estate blog, www.AsTheLakeChurns.com

June 2012 Lake of the Ozarks Real Estate Update

Where the Sales Are This month I’m going to review a breakdown of the property sales so far this year. This will include property types as well as location. Obviously within any given property type there are still a lot of variables so if you have questions on how a specific property fits in the whole scheme of things as far as what is selling, please contact me with the details. Through May 15, 2012 there have been 657 properties sold via the Bagnell Dam/Lake of the Ozarks MLS system. 63.9% Homes, 25.4% Condos, 7.7% Lots/Vacant Land, 1.9% Commercial, .9% Farms. As you can see, almost 90% of sales were residential dwellings. The home sales breakdown is as follows: 46.2% lakefront homes, 16.2% lakeview and/or lakeaccess homes, 37.6% offwater homes. Almost half (47.4%) of the lakefront home sales were located in the Horseshoe Bend and Shawnee Bend areas of the lake including Four Seasons, Porto Cima and The Villages subdivisions. The balance was distributed fairly evenly around the lake with the Gravois Mills area seeing the next highest amount at 10.8% of lakefront home sales. Osage Beach and the Linn Creek area were home to the highest number of lakeview/access homes with a combined total of 39.7%. The leaders in the non waterfront home market were Eldon and Camdenton with 20.8% and 14.6% respectively. Horseshoe Bend/Four Seasons and Versailles areas both tied for 3rd with 10% each. Lots & Vacant Land Sales: 31.2% lakefront lots, .6% lakeview and/or lakeaccess, 63% offwater lots. I was surprised by the number of offwater lots sales. In reviewing the individual sales I did find that the majority of these were small acreages ranging from 5-40 acres but sales also included small building lots and a couple of larger tracts (up to 160 Acres). Condo sales were concentrated in the Horseshoe Bend/Four Seasons and Osage Beach areas totaling almost 2/3 of the market with each area accounting for 30.5% of total condo sales. The rest of the market was fairly even with the Camdenton/Greenview area in 3rd place at 10.8%. In general, I am seeing a lot of activity. Buyers are making offers but I am finding as the market strengthens that sellers are holding firm or close to their list prices and many of the negotiations are ending in stalemates. I feel this is a natural transition as the market makes the slow swing from buyer’s market to recovery however it does make for a lot of frustrated parties on all sides of the deal. Hang in there and make sure you are working with an educated, experienced and patient negotiator. If you would like a detailed sales report on your specific property type or neighborhood, or would like information on the best buys at the lake, contact C. Michael Elliott & Associates at 866.Your.Lake or cme@yourlake.com View thousands of lake area listings at www.YourLake.com. You can also log your opinions on Michael’s real estate blog, www.AsTheLakeChurns.com

May Lake of the Ozarks Real Estate Report

Who’s Representing You?

Missouri law allows real estate licensees to work for the interest of one or both of the parties to the transaction. The law also allows the licensee to work in a neutral position. The general public, and even many licensees, believe that if you are working with a licensed real estate agent, they are working on your behalf. However, Missouri law requires that you must enter into a written agreement if you want representation.

At the onset of communication, a licensee must make you aware of the choices available to you in terms of representation. Without a written agreement stating the type of relationship you have with an agent, that agent is working in a neutral position, not as an advocate for you or, if they are the listing agent on a property you have interest in, most likely they are working for the seller. In a neutral, or Transaction Brokerage, position the agent still has a duty to be honest and fair with all parties and cannot disclose any of your confidential information. If you’d like a copy of the types of representation that are available call or email me.

Be sure you understand from the start, who the agent you are dealing with is working for. Ask for recommendations from friends and coworkers. Ask the agent for previous clients you can contact for insight into their real estate experience. Many buyers are concerned about entering into an exclusive agreement with an agent in case a “deal” comes along that they could “save” on commissions. I have assisted numerous sellers over the years who are struggling to re-sell that “deal” they cut for themselves. Consider enlisting an experienced, knowledgeable, reputable agent to work on your behalf. A great agent can save you time, money and a great deal of headaches down the road.

Now for an update on the current lake market. A year ago, I wrote that I was seeing an upward trend in the number of homes sold, the total sales volume and an increase in the upper range of sales prices. I was cautiously optimistic that the lake home market was starting toward a slow but positive recovery.
As you’ll see in the chart below, our market has continued a steady growth.

This chart lays out the number of homes sold, average sales price, and average days on the market based on data from our Bagnell Dam Association of REALTORS Multiple Listing System comparing the time frames of January 1 thru April 15 of each year from 2003 to the 2012.
Chart here please


If you would like a detailed sales report on your specific property type or neighborhood, or would like information on the best buys at the lake, contact C. Michael Elliott & Associates at 866.Your.Lake or cme@yourlake.com View thousands of lake area listings at www.YourLake.com. You can also log your opinions on Michael’s real estate blog, www.AsTheLakeChurns.com

April Lake of the Ozarks Real Estate Report

The latest lake home sales figures show an increase once again. This rate is above year ago levels by 26.7 percent. Condo sales have also shown a large increase in 2012 vs. 2011 with a 22.8 percent growth in units sold. Average days on the market for lake homes has dropped from 214 to 168 however, condo market times have seen an increase of 23 days over the same time last year.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said underlying factors are much better compared to one year ago. "The market is trending up unevenly, with record high consumer buying power and sustained job gains giving buyers the confidence they need to get into the market," he said. "Although relatively unusual, there will be rising demand for both rental space and homeownership this year. The great suppression in household formation during the past four years was unsustainable, and a pent-up demand could burst forth from the improving economy."
Regionally, the results were mixed. Declines were seen in both the Northeast and West. The Northeast dropped 3.3 percent in February, with median prices declining 1.9 percent from a year ago.
The West posted a 3.2 percent monthly decline, but is up 6.1 percent of February 2011 as well as up 3.1 percent in median prices.
The Midwest and South were both up, rising 1.0 and 0.6 percent respectively. The median price in the Midwest was down half a percent to $120,000, the lowest median price in the nation.
Decreasing inventory, combined with virtually no new residential construction during the past three years, assure that rents will continue to rise as well as likely home price increases in 2012. I also feel the decrease will drive lot sale which have been almost non-existent the past few years.
So, back to the same song, second verse: you’re not going to find a better time to purchase at Lake of the Ozarks. If you are considering selling, prices are holding steady. If you’re looking to sell and purchase another property, any value loss in your existing home will be offset in the lowered value of the purchased home.
If you would like a detailed sales report on your specific property type or neighborhood, or would like information on the best buys at the lake, contact C. Michael Elliott & Associates at 866.Your.Lake or cme@yourlake.com View thousands of lake area listings at www.YourLake.com. You can also log your opinions on Michael’s real estate blog, www.AsTheLakeChurns.com

March Lake of the Ozarks Real Estate Report

As the market stabilizes some buyers are defeating themselves and reducing the value they could gain from buying at the bottom of the market, in terms of both home prices and interest rates. Here are just a few ways buyers are setting themselves up for failure.
Looking too long and at too many homes. It is not unusual to hear buyers today say they've been searching for a year, 18 months, even two or three years. Often these buyers have made low offers on multiple properties and have lost out on several “deals”. When you take that long, you become susceptible to overpaying out of sheer exhaustion. It can also cause you to settle for a home that doesn’t meet your needs. To avoid this problem understand and be clear on the differences between what you want and what you need, and work with a local real estate professional you trust. Look to your agent to help keep your expectations based in reality so you can make better decisions about your purchase. Look at homes in a price range where you're likely to find something that will work for you and will allow you to be successful in your efforts to obtain one.
Delaying making a decision because they think prices may get even lower or a better deal will come along. The lake home market has stabilized and I predict a small increase in values over the course of 2012. Inventory is being reduced and days on the market are almost a month and a half shorter than last year.

Making offers way too low. Overbidding seems like an obvious way to cancel out the bargain potential of your deal but making excessively low offers that sellers couldn't afford to take if they wanted to can have the very same result. Buyers who think they can operate strictly on the basis of what the news keeps reporting as a buyer's market are shooting themselves in the foot. If you don't actually secure the home, the bargain basement price you offered is no deal at all. Even if you are willing to come up in price, you’ve probably insulted the seller which will make negotiations more difficult when you make a better offer.

Stressing out. There is so much information available now that it can be overwhelming for a buyer to know how to move forward. Some buyers try to apply national headlines about home prices being depressed to the superlocal dynamics of the Lake of the Ozarks market. Many deny that basic truths apply to them. For example buying a short sale listing can result in a great deal for you however every step in the process is a long drawn out affair, know going in that you will have to have patience and remain calm. Stress over buying a home often leads to panic-based and fear-based decisions, which can be costly in the short and long term.
Manage your expectations by working with a trusted broker or agent you feel comfortable having advise you about the lake area market. Make sure they are knowledgeable about the location where you want to purchase and that they have the negotiation skills to secure the best deal possible on the home that fits your wants and needs.
If you would like a detailed sales report on your specific property type or neighborhood, or would like information on the best buys at the lake, contact C. Michael Elliott & Associates at 866.Your.Lake or cme@yourlake.com View thousands of lake area listings at www.YourLake.com. You can also log your opinions on Michael’s real estate blog, www.AsTheLakeChurns.com

January 2012 Real Estate Update

The lake area home market continues it’s slow, steady progress. The number of homes sales are up slightly with 50 more units sold from January 1 to December 20, 2011 over the same time frame in 2010 according to data from the Bagnell Dam Association of Realtors Multiple Listing System. Average sales price remains unchanged, a positive sign that the downward spiral has come to an end.
Nationwide existing-home sales rose again in November and remain above a year ago, according to the National Association of Realtors®. The latest monthly data shows total existing home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, increased 4.0 percent in November over October, and are 12.2 percent above November 2010.
With more people taking advantage of the buyer’s market sales reached the highest mark in 10 months and are 34 percent above the cyclical low point in mid-2010 – a genuine sustained sales recovery appears to be developing. We are seeing healthy gains in contract activity, so it looks like more people are realizing the great opportunity that exists in today’s market.
Houses haven’t been this affordable since appliances came in harvest gold or avocado green. The benchmark of affordability—the ratio of median home price to median family income—has fallen to 2.6, below the historical ratio of 2.9. Another measure, the percentage of monthly family income consumed by a mortgage payment (principal and interest, using a mortgage rate of 4.1 percent), is 12 percent nationally, the lowest since 1971.
I feel the lake area prices will continue to hold steady through 2012 with some increases in certain property types then I expect a small increase to begin in 2013 assuming things are left to work themselves out and there are no further shocks to the economy.
Buyers who invest now or in the first few months of 2012 will be able to take full advantage of the bottom of the market. With both property prices and interest rates at historical lows, buyers will reap the benefits of this affordability as well as buying on the cusp of an increase in values.
If you would like a detailed sales report on your specific property type or neighborhood, or would like information on the best buys at the lake, contact C. Michael Elliott & Associates at 866.Your.Lake or cme@yourlake.com View thousands of lake area listings at www.YourLake.com. You can also log your opinions on Michael’s real estate blog, www.AsTheLakeChurns.com

December Real Estate Update

Further indicators of a (slowly) improving real estate market with some backsliding in the past 30 days: The sale of lakefront homes rose again in a year over year comparison with the highest number of home sales since 2007, an increase of 8.6% over 2010. The average sales price is following along at a slower pace but is up 1.6% over last year. Both of these increases are down slightly from the year over year comparison 30 days ago. I feel this is characteristic of the lake market this time of year. Sales data is from the Bagnell Dam Association of Realtors MLS from January 1, 2002 to November 20, 2011.

The national delinquency rate for residential home loans fell to 7.99 percent in the third quarter—the lowest reading since the fourth quarter of 2008. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported recently that the 30-day delinquency rate reached its lowest level since the second quarter of 2007 at 3.19 percent.

Recently, BuildFax reported its BuildFax Remodeling Index for September 2011, which shows that remodeling activity reached a record high during the month. The latest BFRI showed that September 2011 became the month with the highest level of remodeling activity since the Index was introduced in 2004 and represented the 23rd consecutive month of increases. BuildFax also released data stating the most popular types of remodeling projects over the past five years.
1. Roof (21.4%)
2. Deck (7.9%)
3. Bathroom (6.9%)
4. Garage (6.1%)
5. Kitchen (4.8%)
6. Basement (2.9%)
7. Office (1.7%)
8. Sunroom (0.7%)
Mortgage rates continue to be near record lows, and as homeowners refinance, they are continuing to update their current home and invest in their properties. Homeowners are not only doing important maintenance projects, such as fixing their roof, but also taking on projects that add to the livability of their homes by adding decks, remodeling their bathrooms and updating their kitchens. These are immediate fixes they will enjoy and that potential buyers look for.
Karen and I would like to extend wishes to you for a wonderful holiday season. Our hope for everyone is food on the table, a roof over your head and loving friends and family to enjoy.
If you would like a detailed sales report on your specific property type or neighborhood, or would like information on the best buys at the lake, contact C. Michael Elliott & Associates at 866.Your.Lake or cme@yourlake.com View thousands of lake area listings at www.YourLake.com. You can also log your opinions on Michael’s real estate blog, www.AsTheLakeChurns.com