December Lake of the Ozarks Real Estate Update

 

     You may have heard that all real estate is local.  I know I’ve talked beat the drum about why it’s a good idea to have an experienced, knowledgeable broker to help with pricing and other items important to making a good buying or selling decision. 

   I think recent events with Zillow and their home buying adventures present a cautionary tale based on exactly these points.  Or, as my wife likes to say, “You can either be a good example or a horrible warning.”

     Don’t get me wrong, I think Zillow has done a fantastic job of putting together a real estate search app and follow up system that was lacking in this industry.  They truly nailed that and captured the market.  Whether they got greedy or over ambitious or a combination of both, their ibuying program showed none of the well thought out execution of their marketing platform.

     Zillow paused it’s ibuying program at the beginning of November.  Reports showed that at the end of the third quarter 9,790 homes in inventory, with another 8,172 homes under contract.  They stated they would honor the existing contracts but would not be purchasing any additional homes. 

     Until this event, I really thought of the zestimate as a gimmick to draw people in and a bit of an aggravation to be honest.  It was rarely correct, and I have spent a lot of time digging through Zillow’s data in order to show homeowners where Zillow had gotten it so wrong. 

     It never occurred to me that this company believed its own hype and was prepared to purchase homes based on these, frequently way off, guesstimates.

     Three main things went wrong here.  1.  They relied on computer generated pricing without having any direct knowledge of the home or neighborhood.  2. Often, the sellers drawn to this type of quick sale transaction have homes with issues.  These may range from repairs and updates to unfixable flaws that make them more difficult to sell.   3.  They didn’t have relationships with various local contractors needed to bring the homes they purchased up to par. 

     Each of these items could be overcome by a local real estate professional.  Think I should see if Zillow needs a listing broker?

     C. Michael Elliott and Associates is a boutique, privately owned office.  Please give us a call if you are considering buying or selling, we’ll explain our services in detail and you can decide if we are a good fit for you.

     Michael Elliott has been selling real estate at the Lake of the Ozarks since 1981.  He is one of the most respected brokers in the area.  If you would like to work with Michael in the sale or purchase of property, or have interest in a career in real estate, contact him at 573.365.SOLD or cme@yourlake.com  or stop by C. Michael Elliott & Associates, 3738 Osage Beach Parkway. 

November Lake of the Ozarks Real Estate Update

 

Third Quarter Update 2021

October Lake of the Ozarks Real Estate Update

 

A Seller's Market

The month to month decrease in new listings coming to the multiple listing service continued in September.  Lakefront home listings in September 2021 were 37 percent less than August’s new listings and 43.4 percent less than September 2020’s homes coming on the market.  Year to date, 2021 lakefront homes listings decreased by 12.8 percent compared to 2020.

     Condominium listings in September ’21 decreased by 45 percent from August and 68 percent from September of 2020.  Although, year to date condo listings increased by 1.38 percent over 2020.

     Lakefront home sales by unit closed, year to date as of the end of September, decreased 16.5 percent, 146 less homes than last year.  Most of reduction in the number of lakefront homes closed year to date compared to 2020 comes from August and September closings.

      The gross sales dollar volume of lakefront homes shows an increase of 13.66 percent year to date in 2021 compared to 2020 however that is a little over 6 percent less than the increase shown thirty days ago.  The average sales price at the end of the September is up by 36 percent but down from a year-to-date increase of 40.29 percent at the end of August.  The average days on the market has decreased another two days from 61 to 59 days. 

     Condo sales year to date are also showing a year to date decrease with the number of units closed at the end of September 2021 dipping 5.12 percent.  The total gross sales dollar volumes increased 25.5 percent compared to 2020 and the average sales price climbed 32.3 percent.  The average days on the market for condos decreased by 58 percent in 2021.

     Lakefront lot sales showed the move toward building as buyers were unable to find or win the bid on a lake home.  Year to date closed units are up 39.3 percent in 2021 over 2020 and the total sales volume increase 71.2 percent.  In September of 2020 the average days on the market for closed lakefront lots was at 313 days.  In September of 2021 it was 84 days.

     As I discussed last month, I think we are seeing the beginning of the next trend.  I feel the existing home seller’s market needle will edge toward center.   I think it will continue to lean toward the seller’s favor simply due to the lack of inventory.   I see more serious buying and selling clientele making their move to the forefront.  Clients who do not have to buy or sell but are extremely capable and who will make good solid decisions.   

     New construction will also change the playing field for existing homes and give buyers more choice.  As these new properties become available, owners of existing homes who have waited until they can find another home that suits them will finally be ready to put their home on the market.   This will also open up more inventory over the next year, but it will be the type of inventory that will sell within days if not hours of hitting the market.

      Michael Elliott has been selling real estate at the Lake of the Ozarks since 1981.  He is one of the most respected brokers in the area and operates a boutique office focused on personal service.  If you would like to work with Michael in the sale or purchase of property, or have interest in a career in real estate, contact him at 573.365.SOLD or cme@yourlake.com  or stop by C. Michael Elliott & Associates located at 3738 Osage Beach Parkway.  Data obtained from the Lake of the Ozarks Multiple Listing System for 2021 and 2020.

 

September Lake of the Ozarks Real Estate Update

 

MARKET CONDITIONS

     Now that we are a little over halfway through the year, we can get a better look at how sales are trending in 2021.  The market is still definitely a strong, seller’s market.  Prices are increasing and days on the market have drastically reduced on many property types. 

     Lakefront home sales year to date as of the end of August are down by 14.6 percent in number of units closed, 110 less homes than last year.  However, the gross sales dollar volume increased 19.85 percent and the average sales price was up by 40.29 percent.  The average days on the market has decreased by 41.8 percent to 61 days. 

     Most of reduction in the number of lakefront homes closed year to date compared to 2020 comes from August closings.  August 2021 had 78 less lakefront home sales than August 2020.  This is over fifty percent reduction, while the average sales price remained almost the same with just a .6 percent increase and the days on the market in August 2021 compared to August 2020 decreased from 96 days to 49 days.  There was a 17.7 percent decrease in new listings, not enough to account for the fifty plus percent reduction.

     Condo sales year to date are also showing a year to date decrease with the number of units closed at the end of August 2021 dipping 4.15 percent.  The total gross sales dollar volumes increased 27.6 percent compared to 2020 and the average sales price climbed 33 percent.

     Comparing August 2020 to August 2021 Condo Sales, new listings increased by 3.79 percent in 2021.  Like the lakefront home market, the number of August 2021 condo sales decreased by 37.33 percent or a total of 56 units.  This is what caused the overall year to date decrease in condo sales.  The average days on the market for condos decreased by 61 percent in 2021 to just 37 days.

     Check back next month.  I’ll take a closer look to see if this is an anomaly or a trend.  As I mentioned a couple of months ago, I do think that we’ve hit a ceiling on prices.  There are a lot of buyers who are ready and able to purchase but who are not willing to overpay.  I think the market will remain strong.  Properties that are selling, are selling rapidly, as we can see from the days on the market.  Market time continues to decrease.  This tells me that properties that are priced correctly are still selling quickly and that buyers are beginning to take a step back or a deep breath and make thoughtful decisions. 

      C. Michael Elliott & Associates is sponsoring Hot Summer Nights the second Friday night of each month on the Bagnell Dam Strip.  Lots of great food, music, events, and my favorite, cool cars cruising the strip.  Karen and I will be there with my new (old) ride on September 10^th.  September is a salute to military, law enforcement, firefighters and all of our front line people.  If you haven’t been to the Lake Ozark Strip lately, you’ll be impressed. 

     Michael Elliott has been selling real estate at the Lake of the Ozarks since 1981.  He is one of the most respected brokers in the area.  If you would like to work with Michael in the sale or purchase of property, or have interest in a career in real estate, contact him at 573.365.SOLD or cme@yourlake.com  or stop by C. Michael Elliott & Associates, 3738 Osage Beach Parkway.  Data obtained from the Lake of the Ozarks Multiple Listing System for 2021 and 2020.

 

 

August Lake of the Ozarks Real Estate Update

 

Mid Year Update

July Lake of the Ozarks Real Estate Update

 

    More Changes are on the Horizon!

     Over the past few weeks, we have finally started to have more properties come on the market than properties sell.  I am also seeing an increase in price reductions.  These are primarily due to sellers being overly optimistic about pricing in this hot seller’s market. 

     Bidding wars have cooled slightly as buyers have become weary of the fight and concerned about overpaying.  Many are making one offer but refusing to engage in a contest while others are sitting back and biding their time.

     Lumber prices dropped recently with reports that costs will be considerably less by the end of this year.  That will accelerate new construction more than the lack of inventory has been able to spur activity.  The building trades have also been getting their crews back in place after several years of lack of work.  Several reputable, capable contractors have relocated to the lake this year and are in place to take advantage of the upcoming construction boom.

     2020 was such an unexpected year due to the pandemic.  Based on the natural amenities of the lake area and the freedom mentality, we gained national exposure on a level not previously experienced. 

     I believe this attention and subsequent increase in visitors and property owners will continue to trend upward.  I think we are on the cusp of another development expansions here at the lake.  We are already seeing a few condominium projects and residential developments take place.  By next Spring, I expect to see numerous ground breakings.

     I am currently working with an investment group with a condominium project set to break ground this fall.  I am also working with developers on a few upcoming lakefront luxury spec homes. 

     I have been involved in several condominium and residential subdivisions over the years.  If you have questions or interest in investment and development property, please give me a call.

     I recently listed the “Lake Dale Estate” at $6,550,000 situated on 25 acres and 500 feet of lakefront.  We will be hosting an open house mid July by invitation.  If you would like the opportunity to visit this exceptional home, please send an email to Karen@YourLake.com, subject line Lake Dale Open and include your name and the email(s) or postal address(es) where you would like an invitation sent.

     Michael Elliott has been selling real estate at the Lake of the Ozarks since 1981.  He is one of the most respected brokers in the area.  If you would like to work with Michael in the sale or purchase of property, or have interest in a career in real estate, contact him at 573.365.SOLD or cme@yourlake.com  or stop by C. Michael Elliott & Associates, 3738 Osage Beach Parkway.   

June Lake of the Ozarks Real Estate Update

 

What a difference a year makes! 

     Last year came out of the gates strong.  Compared to January of 2019, January 2020 total closed transactions had increased 20.28 percent, total dollar volume 37.6 percent and average sales price 14.4 percent.  

     Lakefront home sales had increased immensely.  January 2020 Lakefront home closed transactions were up 28.6 percent, total dollar volume increased 62.3 percent and the average sales price increased 25.25 percent from January 2019.  New listings decreased 14.6 percent and days on the market averaged 5 percent less than in 2019. 

     In February and March the closed transactions continued to increase year over years but each month the gains were less, new listings began to increase as did days on the market.  In April, things really changed abruptly.  New listings dropped by 45 percent compared to 2019, closed transactions dropped 18 percent and sales volume dropped 14 percent.

     By the end of May 2020, the downward effects of the pandemic on the lake real estate market had eliminated most of the gains from the early months.  Total closed transactions were down 5.56 percent year over year, total closed sales volume was even with the previous year and the average sales price was up just 5.75 percent.

     One year later.  We’ve watched most properties spend limited  days on the market and enjoy multiple offers.  The number of properties sold in 2021 has increased 44 percent compared to 2020.  There is a 101 percent increased in total sold volume year to date.  The average sales price has increased 39.87 percent for 2021 sales compared to those closed in 2020.  There is also a 15.28 percent decrease in time on the market.  These numbers include all properties types. 

     It’s a little difficult to compare this year vs last due to the pandemic and the toll it took on the second quarter of the year.  It is important to keep in mind that while there has been huge increases this year, there were some pretty big decreases or adjustments to the market during the early months of the pandemic.  Even so, it’s no difficulty to see that the pandemic drove our market up in a way that we have never experienced.

     I have noticed over the last two to three weeks of May that there has been a slight slow down to the frenetic activity of the past year.  I am seeing properties sit a little longer on the market and I am seeing more price reductions.  I don’t feel we are headed for any major change, but I do think that we’ve hit a ceiling on prices.  There are a lot of buyers who are ready and able to purchase but who are not willing to overpay.  I think we are reaching the point where prices will begin to even out and not climb as rapidly.

      C. Michael Elliott & Associates is sponsoring Hot Summer Nights second Friday night of each month on the Bagnell Dam Strip.  Lots of great food, music, events, and my favorite, cool cars cruising the strip.  Karen and I will be there with my new (old) ride on June 11^th.  If you haven’t been to the Lake Ozark Strip lately, you’ll be impressed. 

     Michael Elliott has been selling real estate at the Lake of the Ozarks since 1981.  He is one of the most respected brokers in the area.  If you would like to work with Michael in the sale or purchase of property, or have interest in a career in real estate, contact him at 573.365.SOLD or cme@yourlake.com  or stop by C. Michael Elliott & Associates, 3738 Osage Beach Parkway.  Data obtained from the Lake of the Ozarks Multiple Listing System for 2019 and 2020.