As The Lake Churns

Friday, May 1, 2015

May Lake of the Ozarks Real Estate Update

With the recent upturn in the sale of lots for building construction, I though I would share with you a few things to consider in making a decision on which lot to purchase.

If a lot is not located in an area that has a central sewer system, you will need to look at the regulations by both the state and county that control the design and placement of a septic system. Current regulations specify a sewage quantity of 120 gallons flow per day per bedroom for design purposes. This translates into a need for at least a 1,000 tank and 6 100’ lateral trenches. Trenches must be located a minimum of 5’ apart and at least 50’ from the lake and 25’ from a basement. They must also be at least 10’ from the property lines.

In addition, you will need to be aware of the regulations that cover the placement of your home on the property such as setbacks from the property lines as well as any outdoor patios and entertaining areas.

When you factor in these items along with the topography of the property, you need to do some research to make sure your home will fit on the lot you choose.

Michael has been selling real estate at the Lake of the Ozarks since 1981. He is one of the most respected brokers in the area. If you would like to work with Michael in the sale or purchase of property, contact him at 573.365.SOLD or cme@yourlake.com View thousands of lake area listings at www.YourLake.com $1 million plus homes at www.LakeMansions.com You can also view each months’ article, ask questions and offer your opinion on Michael’s real estate blog, www.AsTheLakeChurns.com

Thursday, April 2, 2015

April Lake of the Ozarks Real Estate Update

I wanted to share an overview this month of what is going on in the real estate market both nationally and statewide.

     Existing-home sales showed some improvement in February, but remain constrained by low inventories of homes for-sale that are pushing price growth to the fastest pace in a year. The median existing-home price for all housing types was $202,600 in February – 7.5 percent higher than a year ago.

     Mortgage rates, for now, continue to hover near historical lows. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.71 percent in February, according to mortgage giant Freddie Mac. "With all indications pointing to a rate increase from the Federal Reserve this year – perhaps as early as this summer – affordability concerns could heighten as home prices and rents both continue to exceed wages," says Yun.

     The following is an overview of how sales fared in February across the country:

· Northeast: existing-home sales plunged 6.5 percent to an annual rate of 580,000, but are 3.6 percent above year ago levels. Median price: $241,800, up 3.3 percent year-over-year.

· Midwest: existing-home sales were mostly unchanged from January at an annual level of 1.08 million, but are 4.9 percent higher than February 2014 levels. Median price: $152,900, up 8.8 percent from a year ago.

· South: existing-home sales rose 1.9 percent to an annual rate of 2.11 million last month, and are 6 percent higher than year ago levels. Median price: $177,900, up 8.5 percent from a year ago.

· West: existing-home sales increased 5.7 percent to an annual rate of 1.11 million in February, and are 2.8 percent above a year ago. Median price: $290,100 -- 4.2 percent above February 2014.

According to the Missouri Association of Realtors February Market Summary the number of residential properties sold was up 9.7% YTD this year compared to 2012 and the median selling price rose by 22.7%. At the end of February 11% of currently listed properties were under contract.

Monday, March 2, 2015

March Lake of the Ozarks Real Estate Update

I was all set up to report on statistics regarding new housing starts on a national, state and local level and how I felt that would affect existing house sales. However, I read an article today that reported a sharp fall in U.S. homes sales and stated that they were at their lowest level in nine months. It went on to talk about this being worse than economists’ expectations despite the 30- year mortgage rate falling to a 20-month low.

This sounded fairly dire to me so I decided to dig a little deeper and take a look at how the lake area real estate market compared to national sales. After reviewing data, I discovered that lake area sales were also at the lowest level not just in 9 months but in the past 12 months! The average sales price was also at the lowest level since March 2014!

Still sounds pretty dire. Before panic could commence and I started looking for another job; I began plowing into home sale stats back to January 2005. When I finished this review; I saw the real trend in the recent sales “plummet”. Each year since 2005, home sales and their average sales price have been the lowest in January with few variations when the average sales price was up slightly over another month or two. The only interesting exception to this was January of 2006 when the average sales price was the highest in a month to month comparison of the previous year. As you may recall, the market was peaking at that time and average sales prices were highest in 2006.

Last month, the national inventory of unsold homes on the market slipped 0.5 percent from a year ago to 1.87 million. It was the second straight year-on-year decline. Even at January's sales pace, it would only take 4.7 months to clear houses from the market, down 2.1 percent from a year-ago. A six months' supply is viewed as a healthy balance between supply and demand.

The average time on the market over the past year for residential homes has ranged from four to six months. Lake of the Ozarks real estate is a unique marketplace in that it includes a large geopgraphical area and each area holds a wide array of property types. In assessing the amount of marketing time and at what price to expect a property to sell; you need to concentrate on the sales data for the type of property and specific area where it is situated.

Lake area sales data has been obtained from the Lake of the Ozarks MLS based on all property type sales over the time frame from 2005-2015.

Monday, February 2, 2015

February Lake of the Ozarks Real Estate Update

Last month I gave a synopsis of 2014 sales numbers. I also projected that we would see a strong increase in lot sales in 2015 and 2016. If the first 3 weeks of 2015 are any indication, it appears that lot sales are taking off right out of the gates.

The total number of lot sales so far this year account for 17.3% of all property sales during the first 3 weeks of 2015. There have been 13 lots sales so far in 2015 and there are currently an additional 30 lots under contract. While this may not sound like a huge number, there were just 4 lot sales during the same time frame in 2014. 2015 lots sales to date represent a more than 100% increase compared to each year since 2010 with the exception of 2013 which saw 8 lot sales. Total property sales to date are up 36.4% in 2015. Below is a chart that shows the number of lot sales and total property sales for the first 3 weeks of each year starting in 2010.

Home prices are increasing and inventory is being reduced. On a state level, the average residential sales price was up 5.7% in 2014. The number of MLS listing inventory decreased each month from August thru December 2014. The total decrease during that time frame was 23.4%.

I am seeing high activity in the number of buyers viewing both homes and lots during January. Many of the home buyer’s objective is to have a contract in place scheduled to close by mid-March so they can take advantage of the Spring season and be ready for Summer.

Lot prices are currently at an all-time low due to the lack of sales during the past 6 years. As with anything, when demand increases; prices will follow. It probably goes without saying: if you have been waiting to purchase a lot at the bottom of the market; you should act immediately.

Lake area sales data has been obtained from the Lake of the Ozarks MLS based on all property type sales over the time frame from January 1 through January 22 of the years from 2010-2015 and data obtained from the Missouri Realtors Housing Statistic Report of January 20, 1015.

Friday, January 2, 2015

January Lake of the Ozarks Real Estate Update

Happy New Year! Here is a review of how the 2014 sales compared to the previous 3 years and what I see upcoming in 2015.

Total number of property sales held steady with an increase of 8 units over 2013 and the total dollar volume closed was up slightly as well. Units sold were up 30.7% over 2011 with the dollar volume closed also up by 38.5%. Foreclosures remained low with a substantial decrease of over 50% compared to 2011. Total foreclosures accounted for just 9% of all sales with off water homes accounting for 64% of all foreclosures.

2014 Lakefront home sales increased in number by 8.1% over 2013 and were up 26.6% over 2011. Although the average sales price only increased by less than a half a percent above 2013; the average lakefront home sales price increased by 9.4% above 2012.

Offwater homes sales held steady, both the number of units sold as well as the average sales price did see a decrease a slight decrease of about 1%.

Individually owned condo unit sales were up by just 8 units in 2014 but total sales compared to 2011 are up 37.7%. The average sales price increased by 4.5% from 2013 to 2014.

Commercial sales were at 72 units in 2014 and 77 units in 2013. These number represent a 100+% increase compared to 2012. Commercial investors and individual business owners are showing returning confidence in the lake area.

The number of lakefront lot sales remained steady compared to last year but is up considerably above 2011 and 2012. The average sales price took a hit of 23.6% this year; I feel that there will be a strong increase in 2015 and 2016.

I am seeing good, consistent increase in the market numbers. I project that as the lake home sales and values continue to rise and good inventory lowers even more; more buyers will turn to lakefront lots. This will include both individuals looking to build their personal home as well as more builders looking to get back into the spec home market.

Lake area sales data has been obtained from the Lake of the Ozarks MLS based on all property type sales over the time frame from January 1, 2011 to December 28, 2014 and all other times represented in the data.

Monday, December 1, 2014

December Lake of the Ozarks Real Estate Update

The lake area real estate market has seen continuing recovery over the past year and 2014 brought a modest increase in home sales and values. The latest updates from industry reports show positive indicators on a national front that I feel apply locally as well.

As I reported last month, the new home market is finally improving, as demonstrated by single-family housing starts—the number of privately owned housing units on which construction has begun. Single-family starts in October were at the second-highest level in more than six years. Homebuilders are encouraged by this increase in activity, as builder confidence also improved this month. The National Association of Home Builder’s Housing Market Index reached its second-highest level since November 2005, which was before the housing downturn began. The index reading is now at 58, which is 7% higher than last year.

October broke the 11-month streak of year-over-year declines in total home sales. In October, we reached an annualized rate of 5.26 million sales, which was 2.5% higher than last year. The pace of existing home sales has increased in six of the seven previous months.

The quality of sales is improving, with a substantial drop in the volume of distressed sales. If you look solely at good old-fashioned, non-distressed sales, October was up 2.6% over September and 8.2% over last year. It’s beginning to look a lot like a recovery.

Tight supply remains a factor holding back the potential volume of home sales. The inventory of existing homes for sale fell 2.6% to 2.22 million homes, or 5.1 months of supply at the current pace of sales. And while the pace of single-family construction is finally growing again, the growth is not enough to keep up with increasing demand.

The housing market’s positive momentum reflects a substantially improving economy, and critical economic leading indicators point to even more growth ahead.

Thursday, October 2, 2014

October Lake of the Ozarks Real Estate Update

Last month I reported that Camden County new home building permits have increased over 100% this year compared to 2011. Recently a client, Kelly Kenter, President of Sitelines, Inc. a full service construction firm based in St. Louis, shared positive related news from his industry with me. At the end of August, the American Institute of Architects (AIA) announced the Architecture Billing Index (ABI) reached its highest mark since 2007. The ABI is used as an economic indicator for future construction activity based on design billing from architecture firms. It reflects the nine to twelve month lead time between architecture billings and construction spending. The current high mark of the ABI forecasts good news for those in the contracting and construction world. As more projects are being designed, in nine to twelve months, a greater demand can be expected in the construction industry.

The number of sales of all properties is down 2% from last year but has risen 40% above the previous 10 year low point in 2009. Sales of condominium units are down 3.6% from 2013; unit sales have risen 35.1% over 2009. Average condo sales prices are up 6.5% from 2013.

Lakefront home closings are up 6.4% compared to 2013 and stand at 45.6% more than 2009. The average sales price is down 5.8% from last year but when comparing the average price per square foot, 2014 price per SF was almost identical to 2013 (2014 was 7 cents higher).

2005 was the peak year in terms of the number of properties sold. Since that time, the average sales price of both lakefront homes and condos then reached its peak in 2007. 2009 brought the low point in total number of sales followed by the average sales price bottoming in 2012.

The road to recovery has been a little bumpy and sales are certainly well below the peak times we enjoyed. I do feel that we are seeing a nice, steady recovery and given that sales jumped so rapidly to the high points, our current market is much more stable.

Buyer interest continues to be high and I feel that we will see a strong fall market. Inventory continues to drop and as excitement builds in seeing relief in the market recovery; the inventory of accurately priced homes is in great demand.

Sales data was obtained from the Bagnell Dam and Lake of the Ozarks Board of Realtors MLS from January 1, 2005 through September 15, 2014.