As The Lake Churns

Saturday, May 25, 2019

June Lake of the Ozarks Real Estate Update

Tuesday, April 16, 2019

May Lake of the Ozarks Real Estate Update

Tight Inventory continues to Depress the Market and Agents

A tight inventory continues to depress the market. I am working with buyers who have cash or financing in place, are reasonable in their expectations and ready to close quickly but due to the lack of inventory are unable to secure a purchase. 2019 1^st quarter total number of sales of all property types are down by 10% compared to 2018. Lakefront home sales under $1 million decreased 9%, Offshore homes decreased 13% and condo sales decreased 11%. Average sale prices are beginning to show a slight decrease in both lakefront homes and condos, while offshore home average prices are continuing to increase. At the same time, the number of new agents joining our local, lake area Multiple Listing System continues to accelerate.

To use a frequently used but true phrase: The Lake of the Ozarks is a great place to live, work and play. It entices so many to make the move here full time (plus more who dream and plan for the same). Many agents at the lake come from a variety of previous occupations and many embark in the real estate business as second careers. Quite a few undertake a part time real estate career and many still work other jobs. There are also a good number of agents who are initiating a real estate career at the start of their professional lives.

Our current roster in our Multiple Listing System (MLS) shows a total of 711 Realtor members. To put this in perspective, there have been 547 sales closed in the first quarter of 2019. I share this information not to dissuade you from embarking on a career in real estate nor to make you feel sorry for me or any of your agent friends. Although, you might want to take a moment to give your agent a hug. I am sharing this to inform you there is a level of service that is due to you by a real estate agent and to impress upon you how important it is to choose an agent with experience or that is backed by an experienced broker/mentor.

Licensed sales agents are obligated by Missouri State Statutes, guided by the Missouri Real Estate Commission, to provide you with a certain level of service and to be honest and forthright. Further, REALTORS are obligated to do more in the form of our Code of Ethics. Both exist to protect the public. The details are too numerous to include here but if you’d like more information, please let me know. I promise I will share them at no obligation to you.

While I am a proponent of a career in real estate, I am also a proponent of agents acquiring the education and knowledge necessary to truly be able to guide their clients in making the best possible decision in purchasing at the lake. The facts required to pass the real estate exam and obtain a license exist primarily of state and national laws and basic real estate terms.

To gain the additional working knowledge that I consider vital to do right by a customer can be achieved by obtaining additional education AND enlisting the help of an experienced agent as a mentor or choosing a broker willing to teach and guide. I assure you, from my own personal experience, this will make life so much better than hacking through each circumstance as it arises. I had a great mentor/broker at the start of my career and I still appreciate the time she gave to assist me.

There is not a course that I am aware of that teaches the specific knowledge needed to navigate real estate transactions in our unique lake location. Permitting for docks, seawalls, boat ramps, decks, etc. are just a drop in the lake compared to all items specific to our area that can occur during the sales process. It’s unfortunate but not surprising that the number of agents who fail in the first year is 75% to 87% depending on the source.

Real estate purchases are usually the largest a person will make in their lifetime. Choosing an agent to work with is every bit as important as the decision about a property purchase. Be sure you find one that has your best interest in mind and is capable of guiding you through the buying or selling process.

Michael Elliott has been selling real estate at the Lake of the Ozarks since 1981. He is one of the most respected brokers in the area. If you would like to work with Michael in the sale or purchase of property, or have interest in a career in real estate, contact him at 573.365.SOLD or cme@yourlake.com or stop by C. Michael Elliott & Associates, 3738 Osage Beach Parkway. View thousands of lake area listings at www.YourLake.com.

Thursday, March 21, 2019

April Lake of the Ozarks Real Estate Update

LAKE MARKET DOWNTURN?

With the lake real estate market as well as the national market seeing a slowdown in the number of homes sold and price appreciation slowing; you may have concerns about what happens next. Having lived (with a career in real estate) through the real estate and overall economy crash starting in late 2007; I understand why you might be nervous about where the market is heading.

Here are my thoughts as to why today’s market is not getting ready to tank and is much different than the housing bubble that burst 12 years ago.

Since 2007, short sales and foreclosures accounted for a third of all homes purchased. The Mortgage Banker’s Association reported in late February that the percentage of loans in the foreclosure process at the end of 2018 was just .95 percent. This is the lowest foreclosure rate since 1996.

When the bubble burst in 2007, home values started to decrease. Over a four to six-year time frame, homes lost 25-30 percent of their value. Although homes are not appreciating at the rates they were a year ago, they are not depreciating. Appreciation is still continuing, just at a slower pace. I expect home prices to continue rising in 2019.

The number of homes sold dropped dramatically beginning in 2008. Comparing 2018 to 2019, we again have experienced a drop in lakefront home and condominium sales here at the lake. This is not due to a lack of interest or ability on the part of buyers but rather a lack of inventory available to purchase.

Lack of inventory is down to a couple of things. First, homeowners not putting their property on the market. Some homeowners are unable to sell due to the amount owed on the mortgage. Other owners have been unwilling to sell until home values returned to at least the amount they originally paid. Low inventory itself is another cause; owners are holding off putting their home on the market until they find another home to purchase. Some owners are hesitant to move into a larger home and mortgage after previously going through the market crash.

The second major cause is down to lack of new construction. Again, this cause has several subsets. I don’t have specific market numbers available to me, but based on my experience of the market, there are fewer spec homes and new condos being built than I’ve seen since the early 1980’s. I am seeing an increase in both since mid-2018. Builders have also been wary of starting a new venture after experiencing the 2007 downturn where many got caught short. The construction industry has a major labor shortage across the country. Building material prices have escalated making it difficult to compete with even a limited existing home market.

In response to the last housing bubble, lending requirements became much more stringent. While there are still many great mortgage programs available, they are based on much tighter guidelines which will help prevent buyers from overextending themselves. This shows up in the low foreclosure rate mentioned above. The economy and job market are also very healthy, unlike 10 years ago, which increases loan repayment rates. Foreclosures really take a toll on the overall real estate market and that’s not happening or likely to happen any time soon.

These are the main factors I point to in saying that today’s slight easing in the market is nothing like what we saw occurring in 2007.

Tuesday, January 29, 2019

February Lake of the Ozarks Real Estate Update

Year to Date Comparison 2015-2018

Michael Elliott has been selling real estate at the Lake of the Ozarks since 1981. He is one of the most respected brokers in the area. If you have interest in a career in real estate or would like Michael’s assistance in the sale or purchase of property, contact him at 573.365.SOLD or cme@yourlake.com View thousands of lake area listings at www.YourLake.com $1 million plus homes at www.LakeMansions.com You can also view each months’ article, ask questions and offer your opinion on Michael’s real estate blog, www.AsTheLakeChurns.com

Thursday, January 3, 2019

January Lake of the Ozarks Real Estate Update

New Year, New Market?

I think 2019 will move the needle from a seller’s market back to (but not completely) a more neutral market. With that in mind, I know that many sellers have waited to make their home available, for numerous reasons, but primarily for the market pricing to peak. The market is slowing, with many causes, including lack of inventory, high pricing, interest rates and concern about the economy.

Total properties sold in 2018 was almost identical to 2017 numbers with an average sales price increasing at 1.5%. Lakefront home and condo sales both saw a decrease in the number of properties sold in 2018 with the average sales price continuing to increase. Lakefront lots sales were also down slightly with a steady increase in average sales price.

Offwater properties made up for the decrease in lakefront sales. Non waterfront home sales increased by 3.8% and had a small average sales price increase. Non waterfront lot sales increased by 38%.

New construction is up across the lake area. Many of the clients I work with are now building on lots that they have owned for several years so the current lot sales don’t correlate to the amount of new construction that is occurring.

The upper end market from $750,000 and up has been slow to nonexistent the past few years. I believe this will start its comeback in 2019 but without the accelerated sales price that we have seen in the lower price ranges. I think we will see those value start increasing in 2020 barring any national or global event that would affect buyer confidence.

Commercial construction and activity is flourishing, another promising indicator. Commercial sales increased 25% in 2018. I feel that 2019 is going to be a booming year for Lake of the Ozarks.

I have compiled this data from the Lake of the Ozarks Board of Realtors Multiple Listing System for the time frame beginning January 1, 2017 and ending December 31, 2018.

Tuesday, November 27, 2018

December Lake of the Ozarks Real Estate Update

Sales Report

Sales of all property types year to date at of the end of October 2018 are up just slightly over one half percent compared to 2017. The total number of new listings on the market is down by 10.69 percent so far this year. The average sales price has increased 1.09 percent and the overall average days on the market has decreased 4.45 percent.

Lakefront home new listings have decreased 13.6 percent in 2018 and the number of homes sold has also fallen by 8.64 percent. The average sales price has continued to rise, with a 5.59 percent increase from 2017. Average days on the market has decreased by 8.92 percent from 2017. In 2018 the average time on the market is at just four months.

The average time on the market for offshore homes has also decreased by 9.75 percent and is currently at three months and three weeks. 2018 average sales price has increased 2.88 percent and the number of homes sold increased 7 percent in 2018.

The amount of new condo listings hitting the market in 2018 has decreased by 15.7 percent from 2017 with the amount of sold units also falling 3.7 percent. The average sales price has increased 5 percent and the time on the market has reduced by 9.64 percent.

Lakefront lots saw an increase of 6.7 percent in average sales price this year with the number sold falling 4.9%. New lakefront lot listings has decreased 9 percent from 2017 and the average days on the market increased by 7 percent.

Offshore lot sales increased substantially by 45 percent in 2018 with just a 2 percent increase in the amount of new listings made available. The average sales price also increased by 5 percent and the average time on the market rose 18 percent and is slightly over six months.

Sales of farms increased 5.9 percent in 218 with a 20 percent increase in new listings on the market. The average sales price increased by almost 3 percent and the time on the market rose 39 percent but is still low at about a three and a half month average.

I have compiled this data from the Lake of the Ozarks Board of Realtors Multiple Listing System for the time frame beginning January 1, 2017 and ending October 31, 2018.

Thursday, November 1, 2018

November Lake of the Ozarks Real Estate Update

3rd Quarter Stats 2018